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When Netflix received its first Oscar nomination for best picture for the movie Roma last month, investors didn’t care. So far, investors don’t appear to have come around to Netflix’s thinking that engagement and cultural impact matter most. HBO, for a rough comparison, recently said it would boost (paywall) its output by 50% in 2019 to 150 hours of original scripted fare. And, by Quartz’s count, it released 1,500 hours of original content in the US. Netflix put out more movies than all the major US studios combined last year. The sheer volume of Netflix’s content output could help generate a steady supply of hits. Unlike those studios, Netflix doesn’t do anything else, such as sell products or operate theme parks, to distract investors when it has a rough quarter. The biggest US movie studios have suffered high-profile flops, like Disney’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, which underwhelmed, and Warner Bros.’ lackluster Justice League.
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The movie and TV business is notoriously fickle. Without lasting hits, Netflix may have to continue spending hand over fist to keep members coming back, Macker said.Ĭonvincing investors to think of Netflix’s financials like other movie and TV companies comes with other pitfalls, too. Some of it may have more legs, but I’m not seeing a Star Wars or a Friends, something that people are going to keep coming back to 10 years from now.” “Nobody talks about it anymore,” said Neil Macker, senior equity analyst at Morningstar. Netflix touted it as one of its most viewed original titles ever in January 2018. One that might be of more interest is a measure of how valuable Netflix content is over time. The company has been playing around with metrics like Instagram followers and viewership to see what investors gravitate toward. It has more room it to raise prices, as it has done for its standard plan in the US at least four times since 2011, and shoulder competition. Yet, the more time people spend watching, talking about, or otherwise engaging with Netflix, the more indispensable the service becomes. Netflix’s talk of impact and viewership plays into a broader shift to get Wall Street to view the company less as a subscription-driven technology business and more like a movie studio or TV network whose financial results are driven by hits, said Jim Nail, principal analyst at Forrester. In this environment, where every media and tech company sells a streaming-video service, Netflix wants people to know it is among the one or two platforms people must have it has the original shows and movies that everyone will be talking about at work, school, or on social media tomorrow. Netflix wants investors to know that, too. The streaming-video giant is bracing for a fresh wave of competition from Disney, WarnerMedia, and Apple, in addition to increasingly formidable rivals like Amazon Prime Video and Hulu. “Some of the most-watched shows in television are on Netflix, and the creators know that.” “What we’ve seen more is that these shows that come out on Netflix are really piercing the culture,” Ted Sarandos, chief content officer, said on the October earnings call (pdf).